Back to gamesaverage paceDOUBTFULPROBABLE
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder
10:00 PM EDTPaycom Center
Spread
-8.5
Total
216
Pace Outlook
average
AI Prediction
4.6/10 confidenceOKC Win
76%
MEM Win
31%
Spread Lean
MEM (78%)
Total 216
OVER (75%)
Key Factors
Grizzlies missing Jaren Jackson IV (Left hip flexor strain)
Thunder offense rated 119.5 vs Grizzlies defense at 111.8
Thunder (53-17) significantly better record than Grizzlies (41-29)
Thunder have best home record in the league (30-4)
Grizzlies on 3rd game in 4 nights
1 key injury — net spread shift of -3.5 points
Jaren Jackson IV (DOUBTFUL) — Left hip flexor strain: ~3.5pt impact on spread
Model spread: -0.5Model total: 239.5Spread edge: -8.1
MEM — Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 41-29
Off Rating
115.6
Def Rating
111.8
Pace
100.5
OKC — Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 53-17
Off Rating
119.5
Def Rating
107.2
Pace
99.1
Environment Notes
- Thunder have best home record in the league (30-4)
- Grizzlies on 3rd game in 4 nights
- OKC defense elite at home
Risk Notes
Largest spread on the slate — blowout likelyMemphis fatigue from compressed scheduleThunder starters may sit 4th quarter
Top 3 Props for This Game
#1
77StrongShai Alexander
threes | MEM
Line
1
Projection
2.1
OVER
#2
74StrongShai Alexander
blocks | MEM
Line
0.5
Projection
0.9
UNDER
#3
69ModerateJaren Blackwood
rebounds | OKC
Line
6.5
Projection
7.5
OVER
Injury Report
MEM Injuries (1)
Jaren Jackson IV
PF | mem
Left hip flexor strain
Impact:HIGH
Expected return: Re-evaluated post-game
OKC Injuries (1)
Shai Gilgeous-Carter
SG | okc
Left thumb sprain (minor)
Impact:LOW
Expected return: Expected to play
All Props (39)
| Player | Type | Line | Projection | Lean | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Alexander | 3-Pointers Made | 1 | 2.1 | OVER | 77Strong |
| Shai Alexander | Blocks | 0.5 | 0.9 | UNDER | 74Strong |
| Jaren Blackwood | Rebounds | 6.5 | 7.5 | OVER | 69Moderate |
| Ja'Von Williams | Assists | 7 | 7.7 | OVER | 66Moderate |
| Chet Williamson | Assists | 2.5 | 2.8 | UNDER | 63Moderate |
| Jaren Blackwood | Points | 17 | 17 | OVER | 59Weak |
| Shai Alexander | Rebounds | 5.5 | 5.8 | OVER | 57Weak |
| Ja'Von Williams | Points + Rebounds + Assists | 38.5 | 39.4 | OVER | 57Weak |
| Shai Alexander | Points + Assists | 33.5 | 34.4 | OVER | 56Weak |
| Chet Williamson | Rebounds | 9 | 8.5 | OVER | 55Weak |
| Chet Williamson | Points + Assists | 23 | 23.8 | OVER | 55Weak |
| Ja'Von Williams | Rebounds | 5 | 5.4 | OVER | 55Weak |
| Shai Alexander | Assists | 6.5 | 6.3 | UNDER | 54Weak |
| Shai Alexander | Points + Rebounds + Assists | 41.5 | 40.3 | UNDER | 54Weak |
| Chet Williamson | Points | 21.5 | 21 | OVER | 54Weak |
| Jalen Williams Jr. | Points | 17 | 16.9 | OVER | 54Weak |
| Shai Alexander | Points + Rebounds | 33.5 | 34 | OVER | 53Weak |
| Desmond Baylor | Points | 14 | 13.9 | OVER | 52Weak |
| Shai Alexander | Points | 28.5 | 27.9 | UNDER | 51Weak |
| Chet Williamson | Points + Rebounds | 30.5 | 29.5 | UNDER | 51Weak |
| Ja'Von Williams | Points | 24 | 23.9 | OVER | 51Weak |
| Ja'Von Williams | Points + Assists | 34 | 33.7 | UNDER | 51Weak |
| Jalen Williams Jr. | Rebounds | 5.5 | 4.9 | UNDER | 48Weak |
| Ja'Von Williams | 3-Pointers Made | 2 | 1.9 | OVER | 48Weak |
| Ja'Von Williams | Points + Rebounds | 31.5 | 31.2 | UNDER | 48Weak |
| Desmond Baylor | Rebounds | 5 | 4.5 | OVER | 48Weak |
| Desmond Baylor | Steals | 1 | 1 | UNDER | 48Weak |
| Shai Alexander | Steals | 2 | 2.1 | UNDER | 47Weak |
| Chet Williamson | 3-Pointers Made | 2 | 1.7 | OVER | 46Weak |
| Jaren Blackwood | 3-Pointers Made | 2 | 1.6 | OVER | 45Weak |
| Chet Williamson | Blocks | 3.5 | 2.7 | UNDER | 43Weak |
| Jalen Williams Jr. | 3-Pointers Made | 2 | 1.7 | OVER | 42Weak |
| Ja'Von Williams | Steals | 1.5 | 1.2 | UNDER | 42Weak |
| Jaren Blackwood | Blocks | 2 | 1.6 | UNDER | 41Weak |
| Jalen Williams Jr. | Assists | 6.5 | 5.3 | UNDER | 40Weak |
| Jalen Williams Jr. | Steals | 2 | 1.3 | UNDER | 40Weak |
| Jaren Blackwood | Assists | 2.5 | 2.1 | UNDER | 40Weak |
| Desmond Baylor | Assists | 2.5 | 2.1 | UNDER | 40Weak |
| Desmond Baylor | 3-Pointers Made | 3 | 1.8 | UNDER | 40Weak |
