Back to gamesfast paceQUESTIONABLE
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
9:00 PM EDTAmerican Airlines Center
Spread
-3.5
Total
229.5
Pace Outlook
fast
AI Prediction
3.5/10 confidenceDAL Win
74%
GSW Win
26%
Spread Lean
GSW (49%)
Total 229.5
OVER (67%)
Key Factors
Mavericks offense rated 117.3 vs Warriors defense at 112.8
Fast pace expected — more possessions, higher scoring
Highest total on the slate
Warriors play fastest pace in the West
Model spread: -3.5Model total: 235Spread edge: -0.1
GSW — Golden State Warriors
Record: 43-27
Off Rating
116.5
Def Rating
112.8
Pace
102.4
DAL — Dallas Mavericks
Record: 45-25
Off Rating
117.3
Def Rating
111.9
Pace
100.8
Environment Notes
- Highest total on the slate
- Warriors play fastest pace in the West
- Dallas 7-3 at home in last 10
Risk Notes
Fast pace inflates stats but increases varianceBoth teams prone to defensive lapses in transition
Top 3 Props for This Game
#1
82EliteTim Hardwick
steals | GSW
Line
0.5
Projection
1.1
OVER
#2
77StrongLuka Brennan
steals | GSW
Line
1
Projection
1.6
OVER
#3
73StrongChris Aldridge
blocks | DAL
Line
0.5
Projection
0.9
UNDER
Injury Report
GSW Injuries (1)
Klay Bennett
SG | gsw
Left Achilles soreness
Impact:MEDIUM
Expected return: Game-time decision
DAL Injuries (0)
No injuries
All Props (40)
| Player | Type | Line | Projection | Lean | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hardwick | Steals | 0.5 | 1.1 | OVER | 82Elite |
| Luka Brennan | Steals | 1 | 1.6 | OVER | 77Strong |
| Chris Aldridge | Blocks | 0.5 | 0.9 | UNDER | 73Strong |
| Chris Aldridge | Rebounds | 6.5 | 7.3 | OVER | 63Moderate |
| Jordan Blake | 3-Pointers Made | 3.5 | 3.5 | OVER | 59Weak |
| Luka Brennan | Points | 33 | 32.2 | UNDER | 57Weak |
| Kyrie Nash | Points | 24 | 24.7 | OVER | 56Weak |
| Steph Warren | Points + Rebounds | 36.5 | 35.7 | UNDER | 56Weak |
| Kyrie Nash | Points + Assists | 28 | 28.4 | OVER | 55Weak |
| Tim Hardwick | Points | 14.5 | 15.6 | OVER | 54Weak |
| Steph Warren | Points + Rebounds + Assists | 42 | 42.7 | OVER | 54Weak |
| Jordan Blake | Points | 24 | 23.6 | OVER | 54Weak |
| Jordan Blake | Steals | 1 | 1.1 | UNDER | 54Weak |
| Luka Brennan | Rebounds | 9.5 | 9.4 | OVER | 53Weak |
| Luka Brennan | Points + Rebounds | 42.5 | 41.6 | UNDER | 53Weak |
| Kyrie Nash | 3-Pointers Made | 2 | 2.3 | OVER | 53Weak |
| Steph Warren | Steals | 1 | 1.3 | UNDER | 53Weak |
| Jordan Blake | Points + Rebounds | 28.5 | 28.5 | OVER | 53Weak |
| Steph Warren | Points + Assists | 36.5 | 37.3 | OVER | 52Weak |
| Jordan Blake | Rebounds | 5 | 4.9 | OVER | 52Weak |
| Chris Aldridge | Assists | 2 | 2.3 | UNDER | 52Weak |
| Luka Brennan | Points + Assists | 42.5 | 42.2 | UNDER | 51Weak |
| Kyrie Nash | Points + Rebounds | 31.5 | 32.5 | OVER | 51Weak |
| Tim Hardwick | Assists | 2.5 | 2.7 | UNDER | 51Weak |
| Steph Warren | Assists | 7.5 | 7 | UNDER | 51Weak |
| Jordan Blake | Points + Assists | 28.5 | 27.7 | UNDER | 51Weak |
| Tim Hardwick | 3-Pointers Made | 3 | 2.8 | OVER | 50Weak |
| Steph Warren | 3-Pointers Made | 5 | 5.3 | OVER | 50Weak |
| Chris Aldridge | Points | 11 | 11.6 | OVER | 50Weak |
| Kyrie Nash | Rebounds | 8.5 | 7.8 | UNDER | 49Weak |
| Luka Brennan | Points + Rebounds + Assists | 52 | 51.7 | UNDER | 48Weak |
| Steph Warren | Points | 31 | 30.3 | UNDER | 48Weak |
| Steph Warren | Rebounds | 6 | 5.4 | UNDER | 48Weak |
| Luka Brennan | Assists | 11 | 10 | UNDER | 47Weak |
| Luka Brennan | 3-Pointers Made | 4 | 3.5 | OVER | 44Weak |
| Jordan Blake | Assists | 4.5 | 4.1 | UNDER | 43Weak |
| Kyrie Nash | Assists | 4.5 | 3.7 | UNDER | 42Weak |
| Tim Hardwick | Rebounds | 4.5 | 3.4 | UNDER | 42Weak |
| Kyrie Nash | Steals | 1.5 | 0.8 | UNDER | 40Weak |
| Kyrie Nash | Blocks | 1.5 | 1.2 | UNDER | 40Weak |
