Back to gamesslow paceQUESTIONABLE
Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat
8:30 PM EDTKaseya Center
Spread
+3
Total
212.5
Pace Outlook
slow
AI Prediction
4.2/10 confidenceMIA Win
60%
DEN Win
40%
Spread Lean
MIA (68%)
Total 212.5
OVER (75%)
Key Factors
Heat offense rated 114.2 vs Nuggets defense at 109.7
Slow pace expected — grind-it-out game, lower scoring
Heat play slowest pace in the league at home
Nuggets adjusting to sea-level after Denver altitude
Model spread: -1.5Model total: 236Spread edge: +4.4
DEN — Denver Nuggets
Record: 48-22
Off Rating
118.1
Def Rating
109.7
Pace
97.8
MIA — Miami Heat
Record: 40-30
Off Rating
114.2
Def Rating
111.5
Pace
96.3
Environment Notes
- Heat play slowest pace in the league at home
- Nuggets adjusting to sea-level after Denver altitude
- Defensive-minded matchup
Risk Notes
Slow pace suppresses counting statsMiami zone defense can limit assists and threesLow total suggests grind-it-out game
Top 3 Props for This Game
#1
75StrongMalik Jefferson
threes | MIA
Line
1.5
Projection
2.4
OVER
#2
74StrongDominic Santos
blocks | DEN
Line
1
Projection
1.5
UNDER
#3
73StrongTyler Simmons
threes | DEN
Line
1
Projection
2
OVER
Injury Report
DEN Injuries (1)
Jamal Richardson
PG | den
Right calf tightness
Impact:HIGH
Expected return: Game-time decision
MIA Injuries (0)
No injuries
All Props (37)
| Player | Type | Line | Projection | Lean | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Jefferson | 3-Pointers Made | 1.5 | 2.4 | OVER | 75Strong |
| Dominic Santos | Blocks | 1 | 1.5 | UNDER | 74Strong |
| Tyler Simmons | 3-Pointers Made | 1 | 2 | OVER | 73Strong |
| Dominic Santos | Assists | 1 | 1.6 | OVER | 73Strong |
| Tyler Simmons | Rebounds | 3.5 | 4.2 | OVER | 69Moderate |
| Nikolas Petrov | Assists | 7.5 | 8.3 | OVER | 69Moderate |
| Xavier Brooks | 3-Pointers Made | 1.5 | 1.9 | OVER | 64Moderate |
| Tyler Simmons | Assists | 7.5 | 8.4 | OVER | 64Moderate |
| Nikolas Petrov | Points | 24.5 | 25.3 | OVER | 63Moderate |
| Dominic Santos | Points | 14.5 | 14.4 | OVER | 62Moderate |
| Nikolas Petrov | Points + Rebounds + Assists | 45 | 45.6 | OVER | 62Moderate |
| Malik Jefferson | Points | 19 | 19.2 | OVER | 62Moderate |
| Xavier Brooks | Points + Assists | 27 | 27.4 | OVER | 61Moderate |
| Nikolas Petrov | Rebounds | 11 | 11.7 | OVER | 60Moderate |
| Xavier Brooks | Assists | 4.5 | 4.9 | UNDER | 59Weak |
| Dominic Santos | Rebounds | 9.5 | 10.1 | OVER | 59Weak |
| Nikolas Petrov | Points + Assists | 33 | 33.8 | OVER | 59Weak |
| Xavier Brooks | Points + Rebounds | 28.5 | 28.6 | OVER | 58Weak |
| Tyler Simmons | Steals | 1.5 | 1.6 | UNDER | 58Weak |
| Tyler Simmons | Points + Rebounds | 25 | 25.1 | OVER | 58Weak |
| Malik Jefferson | Assists | 6 | 6.5 | UNDER | 58Weak |
| Malik Jefferson | Steals | 1.5 | 1.5 | UNDER | 58Weak |
| Xavier Brooks | Points | 21 | 21.5 | OVER | 56Weak |
| Tyler Simmons | Points | 20 | 20.3 | OVER | 54Weak |
| Nikolas Petrov | Points + Rebounds | 38 | 37.3 | UNDER | 54Weak |
| Malik Jefferson | Points + Rebounds | 23.5 | 23.8 | OVER | 53Weak |
| Kyle Patterson | Points | 12 | 12.5 | OVER | 53Weak |
| Nikolas Petrov | Steals | 1 | 1.2 | UNDER | 52Weak |
| Tyler Simmons | Points + Assists | 29 | 29.4 | OVER | 51Weak |
| Nikolas Petrov | 3-Pointers Made | 1 | 1 | OVER | 51Weak |
| Malik Jefferson | Points + Assists | 26 | 26.5 | OVER | 51Weak |
| Xavier Brooks | Rebounds | 6.5 | 6 | OVER | 45Weak |
| Kyle Patterson | Rebounds | 6 | 4.9 | UNDER | 42Weak |
| Malik Jefferson | Rebounds | 4.5 | 3.9 | UNDER | 41Weak |
| Kyle Patterson | Assists | 2.5 | 1.8 | UNDER | 41Weak |
| Xavier Brooks | Steals | 2.5 | 1.8 | UNDER | 40Weak |
| Kyle Patterson | 3-Pointers Made | 2 | 1.2 | UNDER | 40Weak |
